Vulnerability Analysis of Construction Safety System for Tropical Island Building Projects Based on GV-IB Model

The unique natural environment and climate of tropical island regions present significant challenges to construction. Under these variable natural conditions and complex construction processes, identifying and analyzing potential risks that could lead to vulnerabilities in construction safety systems and clarifying their transmission pathways remains a pressing issue. To fill this research gap, a GV-IB model for vulnerability analysis of construction safety systems in tropical island building projects (CSSTIBPs) was established. This model constructs a vulnerability analysis index system for tropical island construction safety systems based on the Grey Relational Analysis (GRA) and Vulnerability Scoping Diagram (VSD), considering exposure, sensitivity, and adaptability. By combining the artificial fish swarm algorithm with the K2 algorithm and the EM algorithm, an Improved Bayesian Network (IBN) is constructed to analyze and infer the influencing factors and disaster chains of vulnerability in tropical island construction safety systems. The IBN can effectively overcome the dependence on node order and data gaps in traditional Bayesian Network construction methods. The effectiveness of the model is verified by analyzing Hainan Island, China. The research results show that (a) The IBN stability verification showed an Area Under ROC Curve (AUC) of 0.783 > 0.7, indicating high effectiveness in identifying vulnerability factors. (b) Within the vulnerability measurement nodes of the CSSTIBPs, the influence on the system decreases in the following order is exposure (0.41), sensitivity (0.31), and adaptability (0.03). (c) Emergency response time, safety training, hazard identification time, accident response time, and duration of severe weather are key factors affecting the vulnerability of CSSTIBPs.