Adaptation measures for climate change in urban areas, considering drought and excess precipitation risks. case study: morelia city, Mexico

ABSTRACT Climate change intensifies hydroclimatic extremes such as droughts and excess precipitation, posing growing challenges for urban resilience. This study develops an objective framework to assess climate vulnerability and propose adaptation measures in Morelia City, Mexico, integrating climatic and socioeconomic indicators. A four-stage methodology was applied: (1) analysis of the study area, (2) data collection and validation, (3) vulnerability assessment using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Principal Component Analysis (PCA), and (4) formulation of adaptation measures.The PCA enabled objective weighting of indicators, reducing expert bias and revealing that the lack of adaptive capacity contributes 65% of total vulnerability. Historical data (1969–2019) and projections under RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios for three horizons (2015–2039, 2045–2069, 2075–2099) indicate that the city will experience increased risks of drought and excess precipitation by the end of the century, especially under RCP 8.5.The proposed methodology provides a transparent, replicable tool for evaluating climate vulnerability in data-scarce urban regions. By combining SPI-based risk mapping with statistically derived weights, the study advances quantitative approaches to local adaptation planning. The findings highlight that strengthening health, education, and water infrastructure will be critical to improving Morelia's adaptive capacity to future climate impacts.