At a Crossroads: Crisis, Vulnerability, and the Possibility of Transformation of Nature-Based Tourism in Canada

We live in an era shaped by a global polycrisis, where climate change, pandemics, economic shocks, geopolitical tensions, and social inequities are converging to create complex, cascading, and compounding risks. For Canada’s nature-based tourism sector, situated at the nexus of social and ecological systems, the polycrisis both amplifies the vulnerabilities of tourism and highlights tourism’s role in perpetuating global risks. Recognizing this duality, this dissertation examines how crises amplify systemic vulnerabilities while also acting as leverage points for transformative change in Canada’s nature-based tourism sector, drawing on geography, systems thinking, resilience theory, regenerative tourism, and futures thinking scholarship. The three studies that form the core of this dissertation are intentionally designed to be complementary and integrated, spanning geographic scales (national and local), methods (modified Delphi technique, quantitative survey, semi-structured interviews), levels (individual, destination, sectoral), and global risks (climate change and COVID-19). The first study, a national horizon scan, engaged tourism experts to identify and prioritize emerging challenges for nature-based tourism in Canada’s parks, protected, and conserved areas over the next three decades, highlighting the sector’s exposure to interconnected risks. The second study, a national survey of 753 Canadians, examined shifts in travel behaviours, motivations, values, and preferences across four phases of the COVID-19 pandemic, revealing both persistence and transformation. The third study examined tourism recovery after the 2024 Jasper wildfire through semi-structured interviews with tourism professionals and community representatives, revealing how structural vulnerabilities shaped recovery processes while also highlighting possibilities for alternative futures in one of Canada’s most visited nature-based destinations. Taken together, these studies demonstrate that crises magnify systemic vulnerabilities yet also create opportunities for transformation. By situating tourism resilience within the broader context of the polycrisis, this dissertation advances the understanding of how a sector both shaped by and shaping global change can navigate uncertain futures. It offers theoretical and practical insights for aligning Canada’s nature-based tourism sector with regenerative and climate-resilient pathways at a time when systemic transformation is both urgent and necessary.