The implications of uncertainties on global lithium resources availability estimations

The accelerating energy transition, driven by decarbonization goals and energy security concerns, is intensifying global lithium demand. However, few studies assess whether supply can meet this demand under uncertainty. This study examines long-term lithium availability by constructing a global bottom-up deposit database and generating a cumulative availability curve (CAC). A six-step methodology combining Monte Carlo and depletion curve analyses estimates 35.5 Mt of lithium, with costs from 1,194 to 31,590 USD/t LCE (2023). Current supply is dominated by low-cost Australian ore, while future production may depend more on brine. Comparison with IEA demand scenarios indicates that conservative assumptions could lead to shortfalls, whereas meeting ambitious climate goals may entail higher costs. Sensitivity analysis shows that physical and technical uncertainties exert the greatest influence. These findings underscore the need for timely investment in deposits and recycling infrastructure.