Urban-rural disparity in China’s residential energy consumption: Spatiotemporal dynamics, key drivers, and future trends

Understanding the urban-rural divide in residential energy consumption (REC) is essential for designing equitable energy and decarbonization strategies. This study examines REC disparity in China using a framework combining the Dagum Gini coefficient, spatiotemporal geographic weighted regression (GTWR), and gray prediction. Key findings include: (1) From 1995–2022, urban REC grew faster than rural REC, although per capita REC showed signs of convergence, with persistent disparities indicated by an average inter-regional Gini coefficient of 0.420; (2) High-consumption clusters were concentrated in northern China, shifting from west to east over time; (3) REC structure changed in three stages: coal dominance (1995–2006), urban diversification and rural biomass reliance (2007–2017), and a shift towards clean energy in urban areas post-2018, while rural areas lagged; (4) Key drivers of REC disparity included residential consumption, population size, employment numbers, and energy structure, with spatial differences due to uneven economic development, urbanization and policy interventions; (5) Predictions for 2023–2050 suggest continued REC growth, with urban consumption outpacing rural, which could exacerbate existing disparities. These findings highlight the need for targeted policies, such as increasing rural clean energy support, balancing urban-rural infrastructure investment, and implementing dynamic carbon pricing to promote equitable decarbonization. • Persistent urban-rural REC gaps despite per capita convergence (1995–2022). • Northern high-REC clusters shifted westward-eastward with structural transitions. • Key drivers of REC include: consumption, population, employment, energy structure. • Urban REC growth to outpace rural, widening disparities through 2050.