Role of elections in securing political legitimacy: russian electoral cycle 2018–2024

The article examines electoral procedures as an institutional mechanism for ensuring and reproducing political legitimacy in contemporary Russia. The focus is not on the formal-legal function of elections, related to mandate renewal, but on their politico-symbolic role in consolidating the existing distribution of power and maintaining public acceptance of political outcomes. The analysis covers federal electoral campaigns of 2018–2024, including presidential and parliamentary elections, and considers them in relation to the dynamics of electoral mobilization, the transformation of electoral procedures, and changes in public expectations. Special attention is given to comparing official voting results published by the Central Election Commission of Russia with data from mass sociological surveys conducted by the Russian Public Opinion Research Center (VCIOM) and other research institutions. This approach allows interpreting elections as a ritualized process of public acclamation, in which institutionally established limited uncertainty of results contributes to maintaining legitimacy among elites and a significant portion of the population, integrating institutional and symbolic aspects of electoral legitimation. The research methodology is based on a systemic-institutional and comparative analysis of the 2018–2024 federal electoral campaigns, including the comparison of official voting protocols from the Central Election Commission of Russia with VCIOM survey results and the analysis of electoral mobilization dynamics. The study’s scientific novelty lies in the development and empirical testing of an analytical approach for assessing the legitimacy potential of elections based on the comparison of public expectations and voting outcomes, which expands the interpretation of electoral procedures beyond a purely normative perspective. Based on two presidential and one parliamentary campaign from 2018–2024, the research identifies a shift from a mobilization-oriented legitimacy model, focused on mass participation, to a consolidation-oriented model grounded in institutional and technological management of the electoral process. A «legitimacy gap» indicator is introduced to quantitatively measure the alignment between projected public support and actual voting results, identifying areas of potential erosion of trust in electoral procedures. The study concludes that elections in contemporary Russia function primarily as a ritualized mechanism of public affirmation of authority. The expansion of digital and multi-day voting formats reduces the gap between voter expectations and official outcomes, enhancing the resilience of positive perceptions of elections and clarifying the transformation of electoral legitimation mechanisms.