A novel advanced active power control strategy for energy bases: prediction, decomposition, and margin management

In integrated wind-solar-hydro-thermal-storage energy bases, the primary challenge in multi-energy coordination arises from the disparate regulation characteristics of different generation units. The slow response of thermal power units, in particular, limits their effective participation in real-time regulation. Although prediction-based advanced control has been introduced to pre-allocate tasks for thermal power units, this method is susceptible to prediction errors and may lead to overcharging or over-discharging of energy storage systems, thereby depleting their regulation reserves. To address these limitations, this paper proposes a novel advanced active power control strategy. First, ultra-short-term forecasting is closely integrated with real-time control. In this framework, TimesNet is employed for minute-level prediction of active power regulation time series to improve unit response speed. To ensure control accuracy, real-time control is implemented to compensate for prediction errors based on actual operating conditions. Then, discrete wavelet transform (DWT) is applied to decompose the active power regulation data into high-, medium-, and low-frequency components, which are optimally allocated to battery storage, variable-speed pumped storage, and thermal power, respectively. Furthermore, to preserve the regulation margins of pumped storage units and battery storage systems, a recovery strategy for reservoir storage capacity (SC) and state of charge (SOC) is proposed using the fractal dimension–moving average convergence divergence–stochastic oscillator (D-MACD-KDJ) index. Together, these components form an advanced active power control framework for energy bases. The effectiveness of each module is validated through ablation experiments. The proposed strategy significantly reduces the deviation between actual and planned output power while maintaining regulation margins, demonstrating considerable potential for improving the operational stability and economic performance of energy bases.