Exploring the potential for cost-competitive e-SAF in European aviation towards 2050

The aviation sector faces critical challenges in reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Sustainable aviation fuels (SAF), particularly electrofuels (e-SAF), are increasingly seen as promising solutions for decarbonizing the sector. This study focuses on the Fischer-Tropsch (FT) pathway for e-SAF production, exploring its cost trajectory and competitiveness with fossil jet fuel toward 2050. By analysing the roles of hydrogen pricing, technological advancements, and EU policy frameworks such as the Emissions Trading System (ETS) and the Energy Taxation Directive (ETD), the study identifies key drivers of cost reductions for e-SAF in the European Union. The findings indicate that while e-SAF costs remain higher than those of fossil fuels in the short term and under some political scenarios, favourable policy measures and advancements in production technologies can narrow this cost gap. By 2050, under the best regulatory conditions, e-SAF could achieve cost parity or even become more cost-effective than fossil jet fuel. This study underlines the importance of integrating regulatory incentives and technological advancements to enable a sustainable aviation future. • Favourable policy set-up in addition to low hydrogen price makes e-SAF competitive. • e-SAF can be more affordable than fossil alternative with right policy intervention. • European aviation fuel costs will generally increase long-term. • e-SAF costs remain higher than historical high fossil price w/o policy intervention.