A replication of “Confucian” model? Predicting higher education enrolments in China between 2024 and 2035

Purpose This study examines whether China’s higher education expansion represents a replication of or a departure from the regional paradigm exemplified by other mature Confucian societies (Japan, South Korea, Singapore, and Hong Kong). Design/methodology/approach The study employs a two-phase methodology. First, trend analysis is used to produce enrolment forecasts for China across ISCED levels 5–8 (2024–2035). Second, a comparative analysis benchmarks these projections against the current enrolment composition of the selected peer systems to assess the degree of structural convergence or divergence. Findings Results indicate that the future architecture of China’s higher education system will differ from the patterns found across Confucian-influenced systems. Specifically, China is forging a scale-induced paradigm defined by a massive short-cycle tertiary education sector (Level 5) and a comparatively compressed bachelor’s sector (Level 6). At the postgraduate level, master’s education (Level 7) is growing rapidly and is approaching international standards, whereas doctoral education (Level 8) continues to trail behind its peer societies. This unique structure, however, generates systemic tensions between quantitative expansion and qualitative enhancement across tertiary levels. Originality/value Given that aggregate data provides limited information on how students are distributed across various education levels, forecasts are specifically designed to estimate the enrolment divided by ISCED levels in tertiary education.