MATHEMATICAL ANALYSIS OF A MONKEY-POX MODEL

Monkey-pox is a relatively rare disease but with a case fatality rate of 1-10%. In this work, we formulated and analyze a mathematical model for the transmission dynamics of monkey-pox. We showed the existence of two equilibria namely, disease free and endemic equilibria. Both equilibria were shown to be globally stable. Sensitivity analysis showed that control strategies should be geared towards reducing contacts between susceptible humans and infected humans and infected non-humans. Also, numerical simulations showed that though human to human transmission may contribute to the incidence of monkey-pox in a population, the non-human to human transmission is seen to play more significant role in sustaining the transmission of monkey pox in a human population.