Quantifying Indonesia's Coffee Stockout Risk: A Monte Carlo Simulation of Production-Consumption Gaps

As Indonesia's premier agricultural export commodity, coffee faces an emerging domestic supply crisis. This study examines Indonesia's coffee stock dynamics through Monte Carlo simulation, utilizing secondary data from FAO and IPCC (2010-2019) encompassing production, consumption, trade flows, stocks, and climate parameters. Four key metrics—Self-Sufficiency Ratio (SSR), Import Dependency Ratio (IDR), Export Intensity Ratio (EIR), and Food Security Index (FSI)—quantify sectoral vulnerabilities. Results indicate Indonesia's coffee exports exceed domestic production, creating supply deficits exacerbated by climate change impacts, particularly El Nino events. The analysis reveals critical thresholds where export-oriented policies compromise domestic availability. Three mitigation strategies emerge: a 20% export reduction to rebalance domestic supply, cultivation of climate-resilient coffee varieties to enhance production, and implementation of a buffer stock policy to stabilize domestic markets. These measures address the fundamental tension between maintaining export competitiveness and ensuring national coffee security amid changing climatic conditions.