Hybridized forecasting and climate change impact analysis of six solar PV technologies under CMIP6-SSP scenarios

This study offers a comprehensive investigation into the predicting of global solar radiation and the evaluation of climate change effects on insolation, as well as six photovoltaic (PV) technologies—mono-crystalline silicon (m-Si), poly-crystalline silicon (p-Si), amorphous silicon (a-Si), hybrid silicon (h-Si), cadmium telluride (CdTe), and copper indium gallium selenide (CIGS)—across three carbon-intensive economies: South Africa, India, and China, over three timeframes: 2015–2050, 2051–2100, and 2015–2100. Employing Coupled Model Intercomparison Project – Phase 6 (CMIP6) climate datasets within Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585), the authors developed 20 empirical, statistical, ensemble, and machine learning models, resulting in the novel SARIMA-CARIMA-GPM hybrid model, which attained exceptional accuracy (R² > 0.94; RMSE < 0.001) in predicting monthly mean global solar radiation. Findings indicate geographical disparities in prospective solar potential: India demonstrates significant improvements in insolation (up to +2.95 %) under SSP585, facilitating long-term solar growth, particularly during the monsoon and autumn seasons. South Africa exhibits annual stability but experiences significant seasonal declines during MAM (−3.0 %), indicating a necessity for focused seasonal photovoltaic deployment. Conversely, China exhibits sustained long-term reductions in irradiance (up to −3.8 %), primarily attributable to enduring pollutants and cloud cover, with winter insolation remaining alarmingly low. To assess performance variations in photovoltaic modules, two innovative analytical instruments—Seasonal Elasticity Analysis Model (SEAM) and Time Horizon Decomposition Model (THDM)—were created, demonstrating that thin-film (a-Si, CdTe, CIGS) and hybrid (h-Si) modules exhibit greater climate resilience compared to traditional crystalline silicon. The results offer practical guidance for enhancing photovoltaic system design, technology choice, and climate-responsive policy measures. • Tri-hybrid SARIMA–CARIMA–GPM boosts GSR prediction (R²>0.94; RMSE<0.001). • Six PV modules compared; thin-film and h-Si show strongest climate resilience. • India gains solar potential (up to +2.95 %); China declines (∼−3.8 %). • South Africa near-neutral annually but MAM losses reach about −3.0 %. • New SEAM and THDM indices reveal seasonal elasticity and time-slice sensitivity.