Challenges and prospects of cotton farming in the tropics: lessons for northern Australia

Abstract Cotton is the world’s most widely cultivated fibre crop, supporting the livelihoods of over 100 million households. Yet its environmental impacts have become a major global concern. In northern Australia, interest in cotton expansion has increased in recent years; however, production faces significant challenges, including poor soils, a harsh climate, and substantial ecological trade-offs. This study systematically reviewed published research from six tropical cotton-producing countries to provide insights into the socioecological risks, challenges, and prospects of cotton production, informing growers and policymakers in the Northern Territory. We analyzed 55 peer-reviewed articles published between 2006 and 2025 using both qualitative and quantitative approaches, including gross margin and break-even analysis. Our findings suggest that cotton production in tropical regions is constrained by extreme and unpredictable climate conditions, biodiversity risks, high carbon and water footprints, significant production costs, and pesticide-related health hazards for growers and farm workers. While organic and rainfed cotton have been proposed as eco-friendly alternatives to conventional irrigated systems, their substantially lower yields raise concerns about long-term economic viability. For example, rainfed cotton would require yields of 2 000 – 2 800 kg (9–12 bales) per hectare to offset the environmental opportunity costs of land clearing, yet current yields in the Northern Territory average only 900 kg (4 bales) per hectare. However, when cotton development is restricted to already cleared land, the environmental opportunity cost is significantly reduced, lowering the break-even requirement to approximately 825 kg·ha⁻ 1 (approximately four bales per hectare). Our findings underscore the need for sustainable pathways, including improved management practices (such as cover cropping, crop rotation, integrated pest management, and supplementary irrigation) and policy incentives, such as Australia’s Nature Repair Market, that can improve both environmental and financial performance.