A livelihoods-based typology of farmers’ adaptive capacity to climate change in drought-prone Thailand

Understanding how farmers adapt to climate change requires tools that capture livelihood diversity and unequal access to resources particularly in drought-affected regions. This study presents the first application of a Sustainable Livelihood Framework (SLF)–based typology to assess farmers’ adaptive capacity in Thailand. Data from 154 rice-farming households in Khon Kaen Province, Northeast Thailand, were analyzed using 22 expert-weighted indicators across five livelihood capital domains to construct an Adaptive Capacity Index (ACI). K-means clustering revealed three distinct groups: Water-Secure Diversified (26 %), Moderately-Resourced Adaptors (41.6 %), and Rain-fed Vulnerable (32.5 %). Key differentiators among the groups include access to irrigation, financial diversification, and adaptive water management. The Water-Secure group demonstrates a pathway of accumulation through diversified assets and irrigation, whereas the Rain-fed group remains trapped by limited capital and exposure to drought risk. These results highlight that adaptive capacity depends on the interaction rather than the quantity of livelihood capitals. Beyond Thailand, this SLF-based typology may offer useful insights for identifying farmer groups and informing adaptation policies in other drought-affected regions with comparable livelihood structures.