Envisioning the future of European mountain value chains: a participatory foresight approach

Abstract Mountain regions, vital socio-ecological systems covering 36% of Europe, face intensifying challenges from climate change, demographic shifts, and economic transformations, necessitating strategic long-term planning. This study presents a multi-regional participatory foresight exercise conducted across 22 European mountain areas to explore future scenarios and strategic pathways for sustainable development by 2050. Through stakeholder-driven workshops, key long-term forces shaping mountain value chains were identified, leading to the development of four archetypal futures based on their respective Theories of Change: Economic, Nature, Niche & Diversification, and Knowledge & Innovation, which serve as tools for understanding diverse regional trajectories and guiding strategic interventions. Findings emphasize the need for integrated, stakeholder-inclusive foresight approaches that go beyond traditional policy frameworks. The research highlights the importance of embedding value chain decisions within broader societal concerns and territorial sustainability strategies. By structuring long-term projections through archetypes, the research facilitates proactive thinking beyond short-term horizons, preventing maladaptation and fostering resilience. This research contributes to foresight methodologies by integrating participatory scenario-building with strategic thinking, supporting Sustainable Development Goal 17 on multi-stakeholder partnerships. Ultimately, the study provides practical insights for policymakers, value chain actors, and researchers to strengthen local governance, ensure diverse stakeholder engagement, and promote long-term sustainability strategies in mountain territories.