A Fractional Calculus Approach to Energy Balance Modeling: Incorporating Memory for Responsible Forecasting

Global climate change demands modeling approaches that are both computationally efficient and physically faithful to the system’s long-term dynamics. Classical Energy Balance Models (EBMs), while valuable, are fundamentally limited by their memoryless exponential response, which fails to represent the prolonged thermal inertia of the climate system—particularly that associated with deep-ocean heat uptake. In this study, we introduce a fractional Energy Balance Model (fEBM) by replacing the classical integer-order time derivative with a Caputo fractional derivative of order α(0<α≤1), thereby embedding long-range memory directly into the model structure. We establish a rigorous mathematical foundation for the fEBM, including proofs of existence, uniqueness, and asymptotic stability, ensuring theoretical well-posedness and numerical reliability. The model is calibrated and validated against historical global mean surface temperature data from NASA GISTEMP and radiative forcing estimates from IPCC AR6. Relative to the classical EBM, the fEBM achieves a substantially improved representation of observed temperatures, reducing the root mean square error by approximately 29% during calibration (1880–2010) and by 47% in out-of-sample forecasting (2011–2023). The optimized fractional order α=0.75±0.03 emerges as a physically interpretable measure of aggregate climate memory, consistent with multi-decadal ocean heat uptake and observed persistence in temperature anomalies. Residual diagnostics and robustness analyses further demonstrate that the fractional formulation captures dominant temporal dependencies without overfitting. By integrating mathematical rigor, uncertainty quantification, and physical interpretability, this work positions fractional calculus as a powerful and responsible framework for reduced-order climate modeling and long-term projection analysis.