Economic growth targets and urban sprawl: evidence from the Yangtze River economic belt, China

Urban sprawl has become a major challenge for sustainable development in the Yangtze River Economic Belt (YREB). This study examines how economic growth targets set by local governments influence urban sprawl and explores the underlying mechanisms. Using panel data for 110 cities from 2006 to 2022, we apply a two-way fixed effects model and incorporate land finance dependence as a mediating variable. The results show that: (1) higher economic growth targets significantly increase urban sprawl, and this conclusion is robust to endogeneity and multiple sensitivity tests; (2) the effect displays clear spatial and temporal heterogeneity—positive in upstream regions and before 2018, but weaker or reversed in later years; and (3) economic growth targets intensify reliance on land finance, which partially mediates their impact on urban sprawl. These findings highlight the need for integrated land-use planning, reforms in performance evaluation systems, and more flexible and sustainable growth target management to curb disorderly land expansion and strengthen food system and land resource sustainability in the YREB.