Deferred timber value and economic contributions: Oregon's forest sector under the Private Forest Accord

This study assesses the economic contribution of Oregon's forest industry from 2020 to 2022 and examines the potential impacts of the Private Forest Accord (PFA) on timber production and employment in Western Oregon. Established in 2021, the PFA seeks to balance environmental conservation with sustainable timber harvesting, particularly on private lands. Using the IMPLAN multi-regional input–output (MRIO) model, this analysis quantifies the forest industry's contributions, employment, and output trends from 2017 to 2022, along with the hypothetical effects of deferred harvests under the PFA. Results show that while industry output increased, employment declined, reflecting gains in labor efficiency, technological advances, and broader economic pressures such as inflation and wage growth. Projections for 2020–2022 indicate that deferred harvests under the PFA reduced direct logging employment and output by approximately 1.2%–1.3%, but less than 0.25% of total forest industry employment and 0.10% of total output. These modest impacts suggest that deferred timber serves as a strategic reserve with minimal economic disruption while supporting biodiversity, forest health, and long-term carbon storage. Overall, the study demonstrates that forest policy can align conservation objectives with economic resilience, offering insights for sustainable management in forest-dependent regions.