Brokering Deals in EU Trilogues? Legislative Priorities and Success of the Belgian Presidency

In the first half of 2024, Belgium held the rotating Presidency of the Council of the European Union (EU). In that capacity, the Belgian Presidency was responsible for brokering legislative deals in trilogues. This research notes examines [1] whether the Belgian Presidency was successful in reaching trilogue deals on files that it had prioritized, and [2] what explains the variation in that success. Based on an originally compiled data set that is analysed via logistic regression models, we argue that files explicitly identified as priorities by the Belgian Presidency were significantly more likely to result in a trilogue deal. However, the Presidency has not been equally successful in all policy fields. Preference heterogeneity within the Council significantly increases the likelihood of agreement, while stakeholder attention decreased it.