The Impact of the Integration of Digital and Real Economies on Agricultural New Quality Productive Forces: Empirical Evidence from China’s Major Grain-Producing Areas

As the digital economy becomes increasingly integrated with the real economy, agricultural production is experiencing fundamental transformation. Digital–real integration has emerged as strategically important for cultivating agricultural new quality productive forces and safeguarding national food security. This study examines provincial panel data from 13 major grain-producing regions in China between 2012 and 2023. We develop an evaluation index system to assess both digital–real integration and agricultural new quality productive forces. Using the entropy weight method, we quantify the development levels of these two dimensions. Our empirical analysis employs fixed effects models, mediation effect models, and spatial econometric approaches to investigate how digital–real integration influences agricultural new quality productive forces in major grain-producing regions. The research findings indicate the following: (1) Digital–real integration demonstrates a robust positive correlation with agricultural new quality productive forces in major grain-producing regions. (2) Both agricultural industrial structure upgrading and agricultural green total factor productivity serve as significant mediating channels through which digital–real integration enhances agricultural new quality productive forces. (3) The impact exhibits notable heterogeneity across three dimensions: regional characteristics, industrial structure levels, and fiscal decentralization levels. (4) Digital–real integration generates substantial positive spatial spillover effects on agricultural new quality productive forces, facilitating coordinated improvements in neighboring regions. (5) A significant threshold effect exists in how digital–real integration promotes agricultural new quality productive forces. Specifically, the promotional effect intensifies once innovation level and human capital level exceed certain critical thresholds. These findings offer both theoretical insights and practical guidance for advancing high-quality development in agriculture within major grain-producing regions while strengthening the national food security strategy.