The Impact and Mechanism of Ecological Assistance on Farmers’ Policy Satisfaction from the Perspective of Peer Effects: Evidence from Designated Assistance Counties of China

Against the backdrop of rising farm household incomes alongside a widening internal income gap in rural China, investigating the impact of peer effects in ecological assistance (PEEA) on farmers’ policy satisfaction is crucial for formulating more targeted support policies and mitigating rural income inequality. Utilizing 2023 survey data from designated assistance counties of the National Forestry and Grassland Administration (NFGA) of China, this study employs methods such as Oprobit and moderation effects to examine the factors and mechanisms through which peer effects in ecological assistance affect farmers’ policy satisfaction. The results indicate that PEEA exert a negative influence on farmers’ policy satisfaction, a finding that remains robust after endogeneity checks using the conditional mixed process (CMP) model and residual analysis. The information transmission mechanism can strengthen the suppressive effect of these peer effects on satisfaction, whereas the social interaction mechanism exhibits a substitution effect with the peer effects. The peer effects are asymmetric, with a more pronounced negative impact on policy satisfaction among farmers over 50 years old and those with lower human capital. Furthermore, the peer effect is most significant for forestry property income, followed by forestry wage income and forestry operating income. Farmer groups with low-to-medium forestry income are more significantly affected by PEEA. Furthermore, among these, the medium forestry income cohort demonstrates the highest sensitivity to the influence of PEEA on policy satisfaction. Therefore, ecological assistance policies should be further optimized, and forestry income should be distributed equitably to enhance the sense of policy benefit and well-being among farmers. Meanwhile, information channels should be improved to guide rational interpersonal expenditure, target groups with strong peer demonstration effects, explore diversified forestry management projects, and broaden income-increasing channels through ecological assistance.