Breaking import dependency: evaluation of the cost-competitiveness of local wheat flour production in Ghana

This study evaluates the cost-competitiveness and economic viability of local wheat flour production as a strategy to reduce Ghana’s significant dependency on import, using a comprehensive mixed-methods approach. The study used a historical (2000–2024) and forward-looking (2025–2050) cost-benefit analysis (CBA) with rice production data as proxy. The research finds a robustly positive Net Present Value (NPV) of GHC1.93 billion for the historical period and GHC87.47 billion for the future projection. The sensitivity analysis revealed that, the project’s viability is most sensitive to global wheat price volatility, yet it remains financially resilient across various adverse scenarios. The findings demonstrate that, local wheat production is not only a strategic imperative for promoting food sovereignty in Ghana, but also an economically viable and robust investment. The study concluded with evidence-based recommendations, including initiating pilot programs with heat-tolerant varieties, developing price stabilization mechanisms and prioritizing important inputs like irrigation to guide policymakers and private sector actors in developing a cost-competitive local wheat flour industry in Ghana.