Assessing the correlation between STAR health risk forecasts with actual health emergencies in West and Central Africa: a three-year analysis

While STAR is not a statistical forecasting model, its participatory, multi-sectoral approach provides strategic value by guiding planning, prioritization, and resource allocation for health emergency preparedness. It enables countries to optimize limited resources, prioritize highrisk hazards (scores 16-25), and implement preventive actions. Recommendations for improvement include recalibrating scoring parameters, integrating real-time surveillance and climate data, enhancing seasonality modeling, and increasing geographic resolution. When combined with dynamic data systems and collaborative efforts, STAR remains a critical strategic tool for strengthening regional public health resilience and supporting WHO's Health Emergency Framework and all-hazards preparedness planning.