The Arsenal of Democracy: Keeping China Deterred in an Age of Hard Choices

Abstract: The margin of deterrence against China is rapidly shrinking, driven not by a failure of US technological innovation, but by the American and allied defense industrial base’s inability to field and sustain cutting-edge capabilities at scale, at speed, and under constant pressure. To counter China’s rapid conventional and nuclear buildup in scouting and strike capabilities, the United States must urgently expand its defense industrial base to revitalize its deterrence system. This article argues that defending vital US interests requires a comprehensive focus on systemic vulnerabilities that offer the fastest path to defeat, chiefly the brittleness of scouting (C4ISR) and logistics networks. The most time-sensitive industrial investments are in munitions, to close a widening missile gap; drones, to compete with China’s mass production; and submarines, to address the profound crisis in the attack submarine force’s industrial capacity and sustainment. Stabilizing the balance does not require a doubling of the defense budget, but rather a coordinated, whole-of-system effort by the Pentagon and Congress to make hard choices, prioritize key industrial programs, and reform the allied acquisition process to produce what the evolving force requires. Achieving these goals requires a political mandate to discard the notion of “business as usual.”