Trajectories, Fairness, and Convergence: Global Development in a Multidimensional Econo-Environmental Capability Space

This study examines global econo-environmental capability for 118 countries over 1995 to 2024 using a five-lens framework covering productive capacity (PC), developmental momentum (DM), resource efficiency (RE), degradation and depletion ratio (DDR), and remaining development potential (RDP). Using pooled k-means, a stable four archetype typology is identified and shown to persist over time. The analysis assesses how archetypes characterize country–year outcomes (RQ1), whether cross-sectional fairness is changing and relates to frontier slowdown (RQ2), and how archetypes, distance, and regional context shape transition probabilities and club convergence (RQ3). Inequality in five-dimensional capability declines slightly over the period (Gini from 0.109 to 0.092 and Palma from 1.563 to 1.464), implying modest convergence rather than increasing polarization. Average capability also improves, with larger gains for initially distant countries and smaller gains near the frontier, which is consistent with mild club convergence. Regionally, high capability cases are concentrated in Western Europe and North America, while sustained upgrading is observed in parts of Eastern Europe, mixed stability is observed in East and Central Asia, and selective advances are observed in ASEAN. Policy implications should be based on a country’s archetype and its distance to the capability ideal. Lagging countries should prioritize diffusion of proven high efficiency options and basic capability building, while frontier countries should priorities innovation, structural change, and deeper decarbonization. Policy emphasis should be updated as countries move within the capability space over time.