NBA all-time scoring champion vs. 10-time season scoring champion: Which record is more unlikely?

Given its popularity and large market value, professional basketball has attracted increased academic attention over the past few decades. We employ the Extreme Value Theory (EVT) to compare two almost unreachable records in NBA: all-time and 10-time season scoring champions. The surpassing probabilities for each record were measured using EVT. We find that the surpassing probability of the NBA all-time scoring champion is more than eight times higher than the surpassing probability of the NBA 10-time season scoring champion, indicating that the latter is the more unlikely record.

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Publication Details

Journal
International Journal of Sports Science & Coaching
Published
2026-01-07
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1177/17479541251408011
Primary Topic
Sports Analytics and Performance
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
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article

NBA all-time scoring champion vs. 10-time season scoring champion: Which record is more unlikely?

Tao Chen, Zhuojing Zhang
International Journal of Sports Science & Coaching
Sports Analytics and Performance
article

NBA all-time scoring champion vs. 10-time season scoring champion: Which record is more unlikely?

Tao Chen, Zhuojing Zhang
article en

Abstract

Given its popularity and large market value, professional basketball has attracted increased academic attention over the past few decades. We employ the Extreme Value Theory (EVT) to compare two almost unreachable records in NBA: all-time and 10-time season scoring champions. The surpassing probabilities for each record were measured using EVT. We find that the surpassing probability of the NBA all-time scoring champion is more than eight times higher than the surpassing probability of the NBA 10-time season scoring champion, indicating that the latter is the more unlikely record.

International Journal of Sports Science & Coaching
University of Waterloo (CA), Jianghan University (CN)
Openalex Percentile: Top 96%
Sports Analytics and Performance
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NBA all-time scoring champion vs. 10-time season scoring champion: Which record is more unlikely? — Tao Chen, Zhuojing Zhang · International Journal of Sports Science & Coaching (2026) | TGRS Research Map | TGRS