Spatial Prediction of Forest Fire Risk in Guangdong Province Using Multi-Source Geospatial Data and Sparrow Search Algorithm-Optimized XGBoost

Forest fires pose escalating threats to ecological security and public safety in Guangdong Province. This study presents a novel machine learning framework for fire occurrence prediction by synergistically integrating multi-source geospatial data. Utilizing Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) active fire detections from 2014 to 2023, we quantified historical fire patterns and incorporated four categories of predisposing factors: meteorological variables, topographic attributes, vegetation characteristics, and anthropogenic activities. Spatiotemporal clustering dynamics were characterized via kernel density estimation and spatial autocorrelation analysis. An XGBoost classifier, hyperparameter-optimized through the Sparrow Search Algorithm (SSA), achieved a predictive accuracy of 90.4%, with performance evaluated through precision, recall, and F1-score. Risk zoning maps generated from predicted probabilities were validated against independent fire records from 2019 to 2024. Results reveal pronounced spatial heterogeneity, with high-risk zones concentrated in northern and western mountainous areas, constituting 29% of the provincial territory. Critical driving factors include slope gradient, proximity to roads and rivers, temperature, population density, and elevation. This robust predictive framework furnishes a scientific foundation for spatially-explicit fire prevention strategies and optimized resource allocation in key high-risk jurisdictions, notably Qingyuan, Shaoguan, Zhanjiang, and Zhaoqing.