Can sudden fluctuations in tourism demand influence the earnings management practices of the hotel industry? Evidence from Portugal

This study examines how sudden shifts in tourism demand affect the Earnings Management (EM) strategies of hotel firms, using Portuguese companies as the study context. This paper uses accounting data from 490 non-listed Portuguese hotel firms collected from the ORBIS database over the 2016–2021 period. The presence of EM practices is investigated using the methodology developed by Burgstahler and Dichev (1997), while panel data regression is used to explore the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the sample firms’ EM practices. Portuguese hotel firms use EM practices upward or downward depending on their starting position. In general, these firms tend to manipulate results in order to avoid reporting losses, a practice they intensify when faced with a sharp decline in demand. In particular, this paper finds that, during the recent pandemic period, such companies have aggressively used the discretionary component of accruals to disclose higher results. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first article exploring how a sudden decline in tourism demand affects the EM behaviour of firms operating in the hospitality sector. Our findings have important implications for such companies’ stakeholders, especially investors and regulators.