When political leaders speak, market reacts: Unveiling the dynamic nexus of media chatter and crypto movements

The speculative nature of cryptocurrencies often reflects sensitivity to political news and media buzz. This study explores the dynamic nexus between cryptocurrencies and media coverage of global political leaders. It examines the influence of media chatter about Donald Trump, Emmanuel Macron, Joe Biden, Narendra Modi, Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping, and Volodymyr Zelenskyy on the daily closing prices of Bitcoin, Decentraland, Dogecoin, Enjin, Ether, and Tether. Based on data collected through RavenPack’s media tracker, nonlinear association mining and wavelet coherence were applied to assess interlinkages. Predictive modeling with LightGBM, gradient boosting, XGBoost, and dynamic ensemble selection was used to evaluate forecast accuracy based on media and technical indicators. Explainable AI techniques helped identify the relative importance of each leader’s media presence in predicting asset movements. Results show that selected cryptocurrencies are influenced by RavenPack indicators, with Bitcoin showing strong dependence on media chatter surrounding Donald Trump.