Analysis the impact of hydrological flow patterns on hydropower generation in Haditha dam reservoir

This research aims to evaluate the performance of hydroelectric dams by incorporating downstream water demand into the simulation model under hydrological fluctuations in the Euphrates River Basin. Historical hydrological and operational data covering the period from 1992 to 2022, including inflow, water levels, storage, and turbine efficiency, were used. The study methodology consisted of constructing an integrated operational model of the reservoir, simulating monthly and annual hydropower generation, and then comparing the results with actual values. HEC-ResSim model used takes into account downstream water demand variations when evaluating hydroelectric dam operation, integrating irrigation needs and environmental requirements into operating rules to improve the accuracy of representing the dam’s operational performance. The correlation coefficient between the simulated and actual results reached 0.87, indicating a high agreement between reality and the model. The analysis also revealed that power production is directly affected by storage levels and inflow, with the highest values ​​recorded during the rainy season (March–April) and the lowest during the summer months, particularly August. Annual hydropower production ranged between 50,715 and 300,105 MWh, with an annual variability of 17.9%, reflecting the system’s sensitivity to seasonal water fluctuations. These results demonstrate the importance of managing reservoirs using flexible and integrated strategies considering multiple objectives (hydropower energy, irrigation, flood control) and projected climate change. This study highlights the importance of numerical modelling as a decision-support tool for improving the efficiency of water and energy resource use efficiency and enhancing hydropower projects’ sustainability in semi-arid environments.