Theoretical guarantees for neural estimators in parametric statistics

Neural estimators are simulation-based estimators for the parameters of a family of statistical models, which build a direct mapping from the sample to the parameter vector. They benefit from the versatility of available network architectures and efficient training methods developed in the field of deep learning. Neural estimators are amortized in the sense that, once trained, they can be applied to any new data set with almost no computational cost. While many papers have shown very good performance of these methods in simulation studies and real-world applications, so far no statistical guarantees are available to support these observations theoretically. In this work, we study the risk of neural estimators by decomposing it into several terms that can be analyzed separately. We formulate easy-to-check assumptions ensuring that each term converges to zero, and we verify them for popular applications of neural estimators. Our results provide a general recipe to derive theoretical guarantees also for broader classes of architectures and estimation problems.

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Publication Details

Journal
Repository for Publications and Research Data (ETH Zurich)
Published
2025-06-23
DOI
https://doi.org/10.3929/ethz-c-000790003
Primary Topic
Adversarial Robustness in Machine Learning
Type
article
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article

Theoretical guarantees for neural estimators in parametric statistics

Sebastian Engelke, Almut Rödder, Manuel Hentschel
Repository for Publications and Research Data (ETH Zurich)
Adversarial Robustness in Machine Learning
article

Theoretical guarantees for neural estimators in parametric statistics

Sebastian Engelke, Almut Rödder, Manuel Hentschel
article en

Abstract

Neural estimators are simulation-based estimators for the parameters of a family of statistical models, which build a direct mapping from the sample to the parameter vector. They benefit from the versatility of available network architectures and efficient training methods developed in the field of deep learning. Neural estimators are amortized in the sense that, once trained, they can be applied to any new data set with almost no computational cost. While many papers have shown very good performance of these methods in simulation studies and real-world applications, so far no statistical guarantees are available to support these observations theoretically. In this work, we study the risk of neural estimators by decomposing it into several terms that can be analyzed separately. We formulate easy-to-check assumptions ensuring that each term converges to zero, and we verify them for popular applications of neural estimators. Our results provide a general recipe to derive theoretical guarantees also for broader classes of architectures and estimation problems.

Repository for Publications and Research Data (ETH Zurich)
Openalex Percentile: Top 17%
Adversarial Robustness in Machine Learning
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