Climate change impacts on photovoltaic solar energy production in Portugal

• » Future changes in solar energy production in Portugal according to three of the latest CMIP6 climate change scenarios are investigated. • » Results show a strong increase in the solar energy potential (30 to 50%) in winter seasons and a reduction in summer periods (between 10 and 40%, depending on the future climate scenario and future period). • » The solar energy changes are mainly driven by changes in the solar radiation that reaches Earth’s surface: higher cloudiness in summer and lower in winter seasons. • » This work shows that higher GHG emissions scenarios project more negative impacts on solar energy production in Portugal. This work assesses changes in the future potential for solar energy production in Portugal according to three CMIP6 climate change scenarios (SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0. and SSP5-8.5), using a high-resolution (6 km) WRF dynamical downscaling of one CMIP6 global climate model. By the middle of the current century (2046-2065), SSP2-4.5 and SSP3-7.0 project modest solar photovoltaic power output (PVO) increases (∼2-5%) mainly in the northern half of Portugal, while SSP5-8.5 projects a PVO decrease of ∼6-7% in the Atlantic coast and adjacent ocean areas. For the long-term future (2081-2100), both SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 project modest PVO decreases (5-7%) in the Atlantic coast, while SSP3-7.0 does not project significant PVO changes. Seasonal analysis shows a strong increase in the PVO (30-50%) in winter seasons and a PVO reduction in summer periods (10-40%), indicating a strong reduction in the PVO intra-annual variability. This work shows that climate change can significantly impact solar energy production in Portugal, with higher GHG emissions scenarios projecting more negative impacts on solar energy production in Portugal, a concerning finding since higher GHG emissions mean lower ability to reduce GHG emissions through the production of energy from renewable sources.