Stage-Dependent Evolution of Floodplain Landscapes in the Lower Yellow River Under Dam Regulation

The floodplain landscape of the lower Yellow River is jointly shaped by natural water-sediment processes and human activities. With intensified regulation by large reservoirs and increasing human development intensity, the landscape pattern of the floodplain has undergone significant changes. Clarifying the relative contributions of natural and anthropogenic factors, as well as their interactive mechanisms, is crucial for ecological management of the floodplain. Based on 40-year long-term land-use data and hydrological and meteorological observations, this study integrates landscape metrics, the human interference index (HI), grey relational analysis, and partial least squares regression to quantify the spatiotemporal dynamics of landscape pattern in the floodplain of the lower Yellow River and to elucidate the driving mechanisms underlying landscape-pattern evolution. The results indicate that (1) during the study period, the areas of cultivated land and built-up land in the floodplain continuously increased, whereas natural wetlands and grassland decreased accordingly. Taking 2000 as a breakpoint, the rate and direction of landscape change exhibited stage-dependent differences. (2) Landscape pattern metrics changed nonlinearly: the number of patches decreased first and then increased; the patch cohesion index increased first and then declined; and Shannon’s diversity index showed an overall downward trend. These changes suggest a process of landscape consolidation induced by agricultural cultivation, followed by re-fragmentation driven by the expansion of built-up land. (3) Driving-mechanism analysis shows that the HI is the primary driver of the current changes in floodplain landscape pattern. After the operation of the Xiaolangdi Dam, water-sediment conditions tended to stabilize and flood risk in the floodplain decreased, thereby creating favourable conditions for human activities. This study highlights the stage-dependent influences of natural and anthropogenic factors on floodplain landscape evolution under dam regulation and suggests that management strategies should be adapted to the current re-fragmentation phase, prioritizing the strict control of agricultural expansion and the restoration of ecological corridors to mitigate anthropogenic interference under stable dam regulation.