The Cycle of Debilitation: A Framework for Understanding the Dynamics of Displacement in Sudan Following the April 2023 Crisis

Background: This paper examines the dynamics of internal displacement in Sudan following the outbreak of conflict in April 2023, arguing that displacement has evolved from a temporary humanitarian emergency into a structural condition embedded in the country’s political economy of violence and institutional collapse. Methods: Drawing on field testimonies, secondary reporting, and contextual analysis, the study develops the Cycle of Debilitation, a framework that explains how vulnerability accumulates across four interconnected phases of displacement: forced departure, perilous transit, fragile temporary adaptation, and attempted return. Results: The findings show that displacement is not a singular event but a recursive process in which each phase generates losses - material, institutional, psychosocial, and social - that deepen exposure to risk in subsequent phases. The analysis highlights the deliberate and disproportionate violence that triggered mass flight from Khartoum; the insecurity, predation, and deprivation that characterised transit routes; the precarious coping strategies and erosion of resilience in receiving areas; and the dangers, impossibilities, and repeated failures of attempted return. Conclusion: Together, these processes illuminate the systemic nature of Sudan’s displacement crisis and the mechanisms through which it is reproduced. While this paper focuses on the dynamics and internal logic of displacement, it does not address the broader impacts on livelihoods, education, health, or governance, nor does it examine policy implications or recommendations. These dimensions require separate, dedicated analysis.