Motion Picture Reviews as Determinants of Box Office Revenue in the Post-COVID Environment

The decline in motion picture box office receipts and shortened release windows following the COVID-19 pandemic have placed heightened pressure on early performance as a critical determinant of commercial viability. Building upon earlier research suggesting that, as moviegoing frequency decreases, consumers are more likely to rely on audience reviews than critics’ reviews when making a decision to see a movie (Chakravarty et al., 2010), we examine which source of early reviews—professional critics reviews or audience reviews (WOM)—has an impact on early performance following the COVID-19 pandemic. We estimate a linear regression model using actual behavioral data—namely, eight years of motion picture box office receipts (four pre-COVID years 2016-2019 and four post-COVID years 2021-2025) and movie reviews (RottenTomatoes.com, CinemaScore.com). Our findings provide theoretical insight into a broader shift from a reliance on expert authority to increasing consumer influence. This research informs studios with their distribution and advertising strategies.