Analysis of global behavior in a diffusive tuberculosis epidemic model structured by ages of latency and infection

• An age-space structured TB model with post-exposure interventions is developed. • The well-posedness of the model and explicit expression of R 0 are derived. • The local and global asymptotic stability for the steady states is established. • The potential effects of post-exposure vaccination are assessed. This work investigates the global threshold dynamics of a novel tuberculosis (TB) model with spatial-diffusion and dual age structures (tracking both latent infection and active disease stages), incorporating key biological complexities like fast/slow progression and immune decline. A key initiative is the integration of post-exposure interventions to assess their potential impact on TB control. Analytically, we establish the model’s well-posedness applying the fixed point theory and contradiction method, and derive the reproduction number ( R 0 ) using renewal theory. Our primary theoretical result establishes the global asymptotic stability of the steady states, proven via the Lyapunov functionals, which reveals that transmission dynamics are entirely determined by R 0 : the disease is ultimately eliminated if R 0 ≤ 1; whereas the spread of TB will stabilize in an endemic state if R 0 > 1. Numerical simulations, calibrated with annual TB case data from China (2008-2023), confirm these dynamic behaviors. They further demonstrate that population mobility exacerbates epidemics, a risk overlooked in non-spatial models. Crucially, the findings show that enhancing post-exposure vaccination can effectively curb the surge in new TB cases, highlighting its important role in controlling outbreaks.

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Publication Details

Journal
Communications in Nonlinear Science and Numerical Simulation
Published
2026-01-06
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cnsns.2026.109640
Primary Topic
Mathematical and Theoretical Epidemiology and Ecology Models
Type
article
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article

Analysis of global behavior in a diffusive tuberculosis epidemic model structured by ages of latency and infection

Lianwen Wang, Qian Jiang, Zhijun Liu
Communications in Nonlinear Science and Numerical Simulation
Mathematical and Theoretical Epidemiology and Ecology Models
article

Analysis of global behavior in a diffusive tuberculosis epidemic model structured by ages of latency and infection

Lianwen Wang, Qian Jiang, Zhijun Liu
article en

Abstract

• An age-space structured TB model with post-exposure interventions is developed. • The well-posedness of the model and explicit expression of R 0 are derived. • The local and global asymptotic stability for the steady states is established. • The potential effects of post-exposure vaccination are assessed. This work investigates the global threshold dynamics of a novel tuberculosis (TB) model with spatial-diffusion and dual age structures (tracking both latent infection and active disease stages), incorporating key biological complexities like fast/slow progression and immune decline. A key initiative is the integration of post-exposure interventions to assess their potential impact on TB control. Analytically, we establish the model’s well-posedness applying the fixed point theory and contradiction method, and derive the reproduction number ( R 0 ) using renewal theory. Our primary theoretical result establishes the global asymptotic stability of the steady states, proven via the Lyapunov functionals, which reveals that transmission dynamics are entirely determined by R 0 : the disease is ultimately eliminated if R 0 ≤ 1; whereas the spread of TB will stabilize in an endemic state if R 0 > 1. Numerical simulations, calibrated with annual TB case data from China (2008-2023), confirm these dynamic behaviors. They further demonstrate that population mobility exacerbates epidemics, a risk overlooked in non-spatial models. Crucially, the findings show that enhancing post-exposure vaccination can effectively curb the surge in new TB cases, highlighting its important role in controlling outbreaks.

Communications in Nonlinear Science and Numerical SimulationVol. 156
Minzu University of China (CN), Sichuan University (CN)
Good health and well-being
Openalex Percentile: Top 96%
Mathematical and Theoretical Epidemiology and Ecology Models
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