State-Dependent Asphalt Pavement Deterioration Modeling via Noise-Filtered Reaction Signatures: A Data-Driven Framework Using Korea Highway Pavement Management System (K-HPMS) Data

Conventional PMSs often rely on static age-based assumptions, which can fail to capture nonlinear, state-dependent deterioration and improvement-like responses observed in long-term monitoring data. This study addresses these limitations by proposing a reaction-oriented analytical framework using eight years of Korea Highway PMS data (2015–2022). We construct a Δ–State Vector by combining the previous-year condition grade with noise-filtered annual changes in the International Roughness Index (IRI) and Rut Depth (RD). Measurement noise is separated from structural signals via MAD-based noise bands (ΔIRI: ±0.089 m/km; ΔRD: ±0.993 mm), with a global MAD floor (minimum-threshold constraint) to avoid degenerate zero-band cases under sparse or near-constant transitions. The resulting vectors are embedded into a low-dimensional Reaction Space using UMAP and clustered with HDBSCAN. To validate interpretability, a rule-based Trend × Mode Reaction Signature taxonomy is used to assess the semantic consistency of unsupervised clusters. Five dominant reaction regimes are identified, showing strong agreement with signature-based labels (weighted purity = 0.927; coverage for purity ≥ 0.60 = 0.911). Overall, the results indicate that deterioration dynamics are governed by lane–segment heterogeneity and prior-state dependence rather than chronological age, providing a reproducible foundation for future event-sensitive, dynamic age reset frameworks.