Beyond Sgr A* and M87*: Sub-Microarcsecond Black Hole Shadow Detection via Lunar-based Extremely Long Baseline Interferometry

Abstract The 1.3 mm ground-based very long baseline interferometry (VLBI) array Event Horizon Telescope (EHT), is limited by Earth’s diameter, restricting horizon-scale imaging to only M87* and Sgr A*. Extending baselines to the Moon would achieve ~0.7 μas angular resolution at 230 GHz, enabling shadow detection for many more supermassive black holes (SMBHs). The concept is motivated by space VLBI missions and lunar exploration, including the ongoing Lunar Orbit VLBI EXperiment (LOVEX) aboard QueQiao-2 (Chang’E-7) and the planned International Lunar Research Station (ILRS). We assess shadow detectability for 31 SMBHs with predicted large angular sizes, assuming optically thin emission at 230 GHz, exploring different telescope locations and antenna sizes. Assuming a telescope at the lunar antipode, we simulate the Moon–Earth (u, v) coverage and show that sources near the Moon’s orbital plane yield projected baselines spanning a wide range, enabling sampling of the first visibility null - a key shadow signature. Using a geometric ring model, we identify six shadow-detectable candidates: M104, NGC 5077, and NGC 1052 are detectable with a 5 m lunar-based telescope; PGC 049940 with 10 m; NGC 524 with 20 m; and NGC 5252 with 40 m. If additional space telescopes fill the baseline coverage gaps between Moon and Earth, 14 candidates are detectable for the n = 1 photon-ring region with a lunar-based telescope up to 40 m. These results provide a clear scientific and technical motivation for lunar-based telescopes in future black hole shadow studies.