Global increase in rain rate of tropical cyclones prior to landfall
Most studies on tropical cyclone (TC) rain rate focus on long-term variability, yet the short-term (days or shorter) variations across the TC lifecycle, with a particular focus on the period before landfall, are most critical because they strongly influence flood risk. Using satellite data, we show that, globally, the mean rain rate of TCs increases by over 20% from 60 hours before landfall to the time of landfall. This increase occurs across hemispheres, ocean basins, intensity categories, and latitudes, although the magnitude varies. As a TC approaches the coast, land-sea thermal contrasts raise low-level humidity over land, while frictional differences enhance convergence, upward motion, and instability on the offshore side of the circulation. These conditions collectively promote increased convection and precipitation of TCs as they near landfall. Our findings critically strengthen the current understanding of TC precipitation dynamics and support more effective flood management.
Authors
- Ralf Toumi (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5203-1883)
- Johnny C. L. Chan
- Shifei Tu
- Quanjia Zhong
- Jianping Gan
Institutions
- China Meteorological Administration (CN)
- City University of Hong Kong (HK)
- Hong Kong University of Science and Technology (HK)
- Ocean Park Conservation Foundation (HK)
- OceanX Technology (China) (CN)
- Shanghai Meteorological Bureau (CN)
- Imperial College London (GB)
- University of Hong Kong (HK)
- University of Asia and the Pacific (PH)
Publication Details
- Journal
- Nature Communications
- Published
- 2026-01-07
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-68070-z
- Citations
- 1
- Primary Topic
- Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones Research
- Type
- article
- Field-Weighted Citation Impact
- 40.64
Funders
- Natural Environment Research Council
- National Supercomputing Center, Korea Institute of Science and Technology Information