Detection of ozone recovery in the Arctic from ground-based measurements

Abstract. Contrary to the Antarctic, where ozone recovery has been observed for about a decade, the detection of positive ozone trends in the Arctic remains challenging due to higher natural variability of ozone in that region. Using a merging of long-term ozone data from Fourier transform infrared spectrometers, ozonesondes, and Dobson and Brewer spectrophotometers, we present regional long-term trends (2000−2024) for total, stratospheric and tropospheric ozone. First, ground-based measurements are cross-compared to two satellite data sets (MEGRIDOP and IASI-CDR). This enables the detection of drifted ground-based data sets we further exclude from our study. We then use a representativeness study based on CAMS re-analysis data to define regions for which representative trends with reduced uncertainties are obtained by combining data sets from different instruments and stations. Annual and seasonal trends are calculated using a multiple linear regression technique involving a set of proxies that represent physical processes influencing the natural ozone variability. Annual trends indicate increasing total ozone over the Arctic, and are statistically significant over Canada and Reykjavik (+2.1 %/decade) and North-West Europe (Harestua and Lerwick, +0.7 %/decade). Ozone recovery is also observed over Canada in the mid-stratosphere (+2.0 %/decade) and over the North Pole region (Canada and Ny-Ålesund) in the upper stratosphere (+2.1 to +3.8 %/decade). By analysing the sensitivity of the ozone trends to the proxies, we observe a slow down of the expected ozone recovery, especially in the lower stratosphere, due to stratospheric cooling (-0.6 %/decade) and to the increase of volume of polar stratospheric clouds (-0.8 %/decade).

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Published
2026-01-07
DOI
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-6473
Primary Topic
Atmospheric Ozone and Climate
Type
article
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article

Detection of ozone recovery in the Arctic from ground-based measurements

Maxime Prignon, Laura Thölix, Roeland Van Malderen, Mathias Palm et al.
Atmospheric Ozone and Climate
article

Detection of ozone recovery in the Arctic from ground-based measurements

Maxime Prignon, Laura Thölix, Roeland Van Malderen, Mathias Palm, Ya. A. Virolainen, Viktoria Sofieva, Robin Björklund, Norrie Lyall, James W. Hannigan, D. W. Tarasick, Matthias Frey, Anne Boynard, K. Strong, Peter Effertz, Bavo Langerock, Thomas Carlund, Nis Jepsen, T. Svendby, Corinne Vigouroux, Caroline Jonas, Xiaoyi Zhao, Martine De Mazière, Quentin Errera, Rigel Kivi, Sibylle von Löwis
article en

Abstract

Abstract. Contrary to the Antarctic, where ozone recovery has been observed for about a decade, the detection of positive ozone trends in the Arctic remains challenging due to higher natural variability of ozone in that region. Using a merging of long-term ozone data from Fourier transform infrared spectrometers, ozonesondes, and Dobson and Brewer spectrophotometers, we present regional long-term trends (2000−2024) for total, stratospheric and tropospheric ozone. First, ground-based measurements are cross-compared to two satellite data sets (MEGRIDOP and IASI-CDR). This enables the detection of drifted ground-based data sets we further exclude from our study. We then use a representativeness study based on CAMS re-analysis data to define regions for which representative trends with reduced uncertainties are obtained by combining data sets from different instruments and stations. Annual and seasonal trends are calculated using a multiple linear regression technique involving a set of proxies that represent physical processes influencing the natural ozone variability. Annual trends indicate increasing total ozone over the Arctic, and are statistically significant over Canada and Reykjavik (+2.1 %/decade) and North-West Europe (Harestua and Lerwick, +0.7 %/decade). Ozone recovery is also observed over Canada in the mid-stratosphere (+2.0 %/decade) and over the North Pole region (Canada and Ny-Ålesund) in the upper stratosphere (+2.1 to +3.8 %/decade). By analysing the sensitivity of the ozone trends to the proxies, we observe a slow down of the expected ozone recovery, especially in the lower stratosphere, due to stratospheric cooling (-0.6 %/decade) and to the increase of volume of polar stratospheric clouds (-0.8 %/decade).

Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (DE), NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research (US), Royal Meteorological Institute of Belgium (BE), Finnish Meteorological Institute (FI), Met Office (GB), Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SE), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (FR), Environment and Climate Change Canada (CA), University of Antwerp (BE), Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (US), St Petersburg University (RU), University of Bremen (DE), University of Toronto (CA), University of Colorado Boulder (US), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (FR), Royal Belgian Institute for Space Aeronomy (BE), Icelandic Meteorological Office (IS), Danish Meteorological Institute (DK), Sorbonne Université (FR), Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace (FR), Laboratoire atmosphères, milieux, observations spatiales (FR), Chalmers University of Technology (SE), NILU (NO)
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