Persistent river heatwaves are emerging worldwide under climate change

Rivers and the organisms living within them are highly vulnerable to hot thermal extremes. However, very little is known about river heatwaves, consecutive episodes of anomalously high temperature in rivers, and how they may evolve under climate change. Here we show that river heatwaves will become more intense and more persistent globally by the end of the 21<sup>st</sup> century, with some tropical rivers reaching a persistent year-round heatwave state in the early 21<sup>st</sup> century. Under the high-greenhouse-gas-emission scenario (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5), the average intensity of river heatwaves will increase by ~4.2-fold, and the average duration by ~95-fold, relative to the baseline period (1976-2005). Nearly half of the world's rivers are expected to experience a year-round heatwave state by the 2090 s. Global population exposure to river heatwaves will reach 16.8 billion person-weeks annually, with a disproportionately heavier burden on vulnerable low-income regions, such as the Congo River basin. Emerging persistent river heatwaves may push river ecosystems and aquatic organisms to their resilience limits, causing irreversible changes and widespread impacts.

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Publication Details

Journal
Nature Communications
Published
2026-01-06
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-66868-5
Primary Topic
Climate variability and models
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
0.00

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article

Persistent river heatwaves are emerging worldwide under climate change

Manhui Luo, Niko Wanders, Ziwei Huang, Zhiying Su et al.
Nature Communications
Climate variability and models
article

Persistent river heatwaves are emerging worldwide under climate change

Manhui Luo, Niko Wanders, Ziwei Huang, Zhiying Su, Sijia Wu, R. Iestyn Woolway, Yiling Chen
article en

Abstract

Rivers and the organisms living within them are highly vulnerable to hot thermal extremes. However, very little is known about river heatwaves, consecutive episodes of anomalously high temperature in rivers, and how they may evolve under climate change. Here we show that river heatwaves will become more intense and more persistent globally by the end of the 21<sup>st</sup> century, with some tropical rivers reaching a persistent year-round heatwave state in the early 21<sup>st</sup> century. Under the high-greenhouse-gas-emission scenario (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5), the average intensity of river heatwaves will increase by ~4.2-fold, and the average duration by ~95-fold, relative to the baseline period (1976-2005). Nearly half of the world's rivers are expected to experience a year-round heatwave state by the 2090 s. Global population exposure to river heatwaves will reach 16.8 billion person-weeks annually, with a disproportionately heavier burden on vulnerable low-income regions, such as the Congo River basin. Emerging persistent river heatwaves may push river ecosystems and aquatic organisms to their resilience limits, causing irreversible changes and widespread impacts.

Nature CommunicationsVol. 17(1)
Sun Yat-sen University (CN), Bangor University (GB), Utrecht University (NL)
UK Research and Innovation, National Natural Science Foundation of China, Natural Environment Research Council
Openalex Percentile: Top 97%
Climate variability and models
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