Impact of temperature on energy consumption and carbon emissions in Saudi Arabia

In the context of accelerating climate change, we employ a general-to-specific econometric modeling approach to quantify the relationship between temperature, energy use, and CO2 emissions in Saudi Arabia through 2030. Our analysis encompasses total final energy consumption across residential, commercial, industrial, transportation, and desalination sectors, excluding petroleum feedstocks for non-energy uses. Using three Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) temperature scenarios, we project additional energy requirements and associated CO2 emissions. In the medium- and low-warming scenarios, energy demand is approximately 1 % and 2 % lower, respectively, compared to the high-warming scenario. These differences correspond to lower emissions by about 8 MtCO2eq and 12 MtCO2eq, respectively. The findings indicate that energy pricing could be viable for promoting energy efficiency and managing electricity demand in Saudi Arabia. Lower-income consumers/entities, however, are less prepared and more vulnerable to climate-induced temperature increases and higher energy prices, indicating a potentially regressive impact of the climate-energy nexus. Higher income elasticity is associated with lower sensitivity to energy prices and temperature fluctuations. These findings underscore the importance of integrating temperature-driven demand growth into energy and social policy planning. In light of Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 and the Saudi Green Initiative, support for energy efficiency measures among low-income households, accelerating deployment of low-cost renewable energy, and investments in climate-resilient infrastructure emerge as critical strategies to bridge the emissions gap and ensure affordable and sustainable development.