Coupling Tourism Carbon Emission Efficiency and Economic Resilience in China’s Yellow River Basin

Abstract With growing global concern over climate change, achieving a balance between tourism development and carbon emission efficiency has become a critical challenge. Using panel data from nine provinces in the Yellow River Basin (YRB) from 2013 to 2022, this study employs the Super-SBM model, the coupling coordination degree (CCD) model, and the random forest model. These models are used to analyze the coordination characteristics and influencing factors of tourism carbon emission efficiency (TCE) and tourism economic resilience (TER). The results show that: (1) TCE and TER in the YRB display a fluctuating upward trend; (2) the CCD has improved from reluctant to basic coordination, with significant regional disparities, as the eastern regions outperform the central and western regions; and (3) R&D intensity, infrastructure levels, and tourism resource endowment are the main factors influencing CCD. Government intervention exerts an inhibitory effect on CCD, while industrial structure has a positive impact. The findings of this study deepen our understanding of the synergistic effects between tourism’s low-carbon transition and economic resilience. They also provide practical insights for promoting sustainable tourism development in the YRB.