Identification and future planning of priority conservation areas in the Loess Plateau considering land use development patterns

As a critical ecological security barrier in China, the Loess Plateau faces severe threats to regional sustainable development owing to the degradation of ecosystem service functions and loss of biodiversity. The scientific quantification of the ecological value and identification of priority conservation areas (PCAs) are urgently required to guide regional ecological protection and high-quality development. In this study, ecosystem service value (ESV) is quantified in the Loess Plateau from 2000 to 2025, and PCAs were identified using hotspot analysis and the ordered weighted averaging (OWA) algorithm. Based on the NSGA-II-PLUS model, three land-use development patterns for 2035 were proposed, and future PCA planning schemes under these scenarios were explored. The results showed that from 2000 to 2025, the ESV of the Loess Plateau will first decrease and then increase. The high-value areas were mainly located in the Lvliang Mountain and Taihang Mountain of Shanxi and the central-southern part of Shaanxi, while low-value areas were primarily located in central Inner Mongolia and the river valley regions of Shanxi and Shaanxi. The use of hotspots to delineate PCAs is not sufficiently comprehensive and cannot be directly overlaid. Using the OWA algorithm to construct indicator weights, scenario 5 (with a risk factor of 0.4) was determined to be the optimal weight. In this scenario, the total protection efficiency of the PCA was 8.76, with a protected area of 105,311 km 2 , accounting for 16.6 % of the study area. Compared to directly overlaying the hotspot analysis, the comprehensive scheme reduces the protected area by 51.18 % while increasing the overall protection efficiency by 39.21 %. Under the natural development pattern, the loss of ESV caused by farmland conversion can be compensated for by returning farmland to forests; however, urban expansion will result in a 12.3 % decrease in ESV in regions such as the Guanzhong Plain in Shaanxi. Under the ecological protection pattern, Shanxi had the largest protection area (45,233 km 2 ), which was 56.5 % larger than that under the economic development pattern. The center of gravity of the overall PCAs is in Shaanxi Province. The center of the PCAs in the entire region is in Shaanxi Province, and the identified priority areas are mainly soil conservation areas. Future reserves may be expanded based on existing reserves in Shaanxi and central Shanxi. The identification of priority conservation areas and future development predictions in this study provides scientific support for the formulation of rational ecological protection policies for the Loess Plateau. • A novel OWA-NSGA-II-PLUS framework enables dynamic PCA planning under land-use scenarios. • The OWA method enhanced protection efficiency and reducing the protected area. • Future conservation networks should anchor on existing reserves in Shaanxi and central Shanxi.