Impact of climate change on agricultural production efficiency in leading agriculture-producing economies: A DEA Malmquist Productivity Index

Climate change significantly impacts global agricultural productivity, making it essential to examine its precise influence on production efficiency. This study evaluates the impact of climate change on agricultural production efficiency among the global leading agriculture-producing economies from 1990 to 2021. Using a DEA–Malmquist Productivity Index, the study estimates total factor productivity change (TFPC) and decomposes it into efficiency change (EC) and technological change (TC), both without and with explicit climate variables (temperature, precipitation). Average TFPC without climate factors is 1.0428, indicating 4.28 % productivity growth over the period, primarily driven by technological change. When climate variables are incorporated, the average TFPC is 1.0409; the mean difference of −0.0019 (≈ −0.18 %) shows a small but non-negligible climate impact on productivity growth. Regional variations are heterogeneous: South America and Africa exhibit diverse climate impacts, while Oceania shows the least climate effect. Mann-Whitney U and Kruskal-Wallis tests confirm significant differences in TFPC (and components) between climate and non-climate specifications and across regions. The findings underscore technology's key role in sustaining productivity under climate stress and highlight the need for region-specific adaptation policies to complement technological diffusion. • Total factor agricultural productivity grew 4.28 % annually from 1990 to 2021. • Technological change was the primary driver of long-term productivity growth. • Climate factors cause a small but statistically significant decline in productivity. • Climate impacts are highly heterogeneous across and within global regions. • The negative effect of climate is channeled primarily through technological change.