Revisiting the Link Between Population Recovery and Human‐Wildlife Conflicts: Insights From Brown Bear Compensation Claims in Greece

ABSTRACT Large carnivore recoveries have often been linked to increased conflicts with humans. Using brown bears ( Ursus arctos ) in Greece as a recovering population model, we analysed 22 years (1999–2020) of compensation claims to describe, quantify and identify seasonal, inter‐annual and spatial patterns in bear damage to property. A total of 7067 claims for damage by bears, amounting to €4.01 million, were recorded, primarily related to livestock (59.4%), followed by apiculture (23%) and agriculture (17.6%). Compensation claims for agriculture and livestock peaked in September, and for apiculture in June. Initially, total claims increased until 2009, then declined until 2012, and finally remained stable through the end of the study at levels similar to those in 1999. Hotspots of agricultural and apicultural damage were concentrated in the western bear subpopulation in Greece, primarily along the edge of the core distribution; hotspots of livestock damage were located mainly within the core distribution. Emergence hotspot analyses integrating spatial and temporal patterns revealed decreasing or stable trends in the number of annual claims across all damage categories within or at the edge of the species' core distribution, where conservation measures have long been in place. Conversely, increasing trends were recorded towards the edge of the current permanent distribution of the species, where bears have recently re‐established themselves, and there is little or no experience in mitigating human‐bear conflicts. Contrary to public perception, the recovery of bears in Greece has not been associated with a significant overall increase in damage to human property. Instead, the recovery has been accompanied by apparent spatial shifts in the location of damage hotspots, with increases concentrated mainly at the expanding edges of the population. These findings are relevant to revisiting conservation strategies to mitigate negative human‐bear interactions and promote a more harmonious coexistence of people and large carnivores.