Spatio-temporal dynamics of brinjal prices and arrivals: A case study of theterai region markets in West Bengal

The study examined the trends and market dynamics for the prices and arrivals of brinjal (Solanum melongena L.) in the Terai region of West Bengal, employing robust and novel statistical methodologies to address challenges in agricultural market predictability. The research highlighted the impact of seasonality, perishability, and demand supply imbalances on price volatility. Standardized Innovative Polygon Trend Analysis, a non-parametric approach previously unexplored in horticultural studies, provided a comprehensive analysis of the intricate cause effect relationships between price and arrivals, capturing seasonal shifts, inter-period transitions, and non monotonic trends overlooked by conventional methods. Increased arrivals during winter and spring caused price deflation, while summer and autumn saw reduced arrivals and corresponding price inflation. Monsoon uncertainties led to irregular arrival fluctuations and elevated prices. November and December exhibited significant price changes. In Alipurduar and Jalpaiguri, arrivals followed an increasing trend except in winter, whereas Cooch Behar and Toofanganj showed consistently declining arrivals. The study demonstrated that S-IPTA could unravel seasonal behaviors and offer practical insights for farmers and policymakers to regulate production and supply chains effectively. By bridging research gaps, this pioneering use of S-IPTA can serve as a robust tool for analyzing agricultural market trends and improving decision-making.