Mind the gap: Mixed-methods approach to investigate transition bottlenecks to low-carbon energy futures

Electrification of transport and industry, a crucial pathway for emission mitigation, may result in a large increase of electricity demand in Sweden. In this study, we investigate the transition bottlenecks for Sweden's electrification using a mixed-methods approach. We first use energy systems modeling to identify cost-efficient combinations of generation, storage, and demand-side flexibility that can meet the projected demand from electrification. Three cases are applied that differ in predetermined investments in offshore wind power and nuclear power. We then apply a multi-level perspective analysis on the three cases with the aim to map out the main characteristics of the Swedish electricity system. We base this on historical development, as well as the impacting landscape, indicating broad, long-term trends external to the system, and niche factors, referring to technological and social innovations. Drawing on these characteristics and modeling insights, we identify transition bottlenecks to Swedish electrification. We find that changes at the landscape level have been insufficient to enable a shift to an electricity system that has a high share of wind and solar power. Instead, the operational and regulatory regimes are strongly influenced by the existing system, which is dominated by synchronous electricity generation from hydropower and nuclear power. Yet, new nuclear power struggles to become cost-competitive in the deregulated electricity market. Thus, transition bottlenecks exist across all modeled futures. • We study Swedish electrification using techno-economic and socio-technical analyses. • Onshore wind power is cost-efficient but requires local incentives for expansion. • High share of wind power requires changes in grid operation. • Nuclear power expansion relies on economic support and a broad energy agreement. • Enabling flexibility and grid developments are relevant to all modeled cases.