Large carbon dioxide emissions avoidance potential in improved commercial air transport efficiency

Abstract Aviation’s climate impact continues to grow, with little progress toward emission reductions aligned with global targets. While technological advances attract attention, operational efficiency across aircraft, airlines, airports, city pairs, and regions remains underexplored. Here we assess carbon dioxide efficiency for 27.5 million flights between 26,156 city pairs in 2023, using data from Airline Data, International Civil Aviation Organization, International Air Transport Association. Results show wide variation: 32–890 gram carbon dioxide per revenue passenger kilometres across routes and 60–360 gram carbon dioxide per revenue passenger kilometre across aircraft models. Efficiency differs by region and is lowest in Africa, Australia, and Norway, and highest in Brazil, India, and Southeast Asia. Operating all routes at their demonstrated optimum could cut emissions by 10.7%. A theoretical 50% reduction is possible with the most efficient aircraft, all-economy layouts, and 95% load factors. Efficiency-focused policy could swiftly reduce fuel use without limiting air transport capacity.