Security risks to commercial ships in the Arctic Ocean due to high tension among states

Navigation of ships in the Arctic Ocean is beneficial for world trade. However, ship security threats may appear due to maritime disputes. This paper aims to identify navigation security risks at different escalation levels among arctic states. In this paper, a conflict escalation game theory for three Arctic states is carried out. At each escalation scenario, an aggressor state has the option to practice certain tactics. Tactics were selected by examining similar maritime dispute conflicts, such as military exercises, rescue operations, and broadcasting safety messages to claim territorial rights in dispute sea zones. Then, escalation scenarios are examined, showing the navigation threats for commercial ships. Results show that a middle-level escalation by an aggressive state could be beneficial to achieving its territorial claims. On the other hand, several navigation risks could cause maritime casualties in a sensitive area. Several studies have covered the issue of safety navigation in the Arctic Ocean and the need for cooperation among states. The originality of this paper lies in examining how each escalation phase could cause risk to commercial ships, urging the need to establish safe navigation zones in the area.